{"id":1304,"date":"2023-07-21T19:49:30","date_gmt":"2023-07-21T19:49:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/?p=1304"},"modified":"2023-07-21T19:49:32","modified_gmt":"2023-07-21T19:49:32","slug":"compounding","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/compounding\/","title":{"rendered":"Compound interest is over-rated"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>When people wax lyrical about the power of compounding, they like to tell an 11th century story about a clever inventor who asks the king to pay him by placing one grain of rice on the first square of a chess board, then doubling it on each successive square. The king laughs at what a great deal this is\u2026 not realising that after 64 doublings, he will owe eighteen quintillion grains of rice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A more modern (and actually true) story that\u2019s often used to make the same point is that Warren Buffet \u2013 one of the wealthiest people in the world with a net worth of some $114 billion \u2013 made 95% of his wealth after the age of 65, even though in recent decades he\u2019s not done much other than sit around reading and drinking Cherry Coke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But for most of us, compounding won\u2019t be the answer to all our financial prayers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(<a href=\"https:\/\/tella.video\/compounding-is-not-enough-1-8syu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">I recorded a 2-minute video about this concept too<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s set up an example to find out why:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>You start at 20 years old<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>You&#8217;re earning \u00a330,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>You invest 10% of your salary<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Your salary increases by 5% per year, and so do your contributions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Your investments return an average of 5% per year after inflation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In the first year you put in \u00a33,000, and earn a return of \u00a3150. Big deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But by the time you turn 60, something incredible has happened. You\u2019re now contributing \u00a320,000 per year into investments \u2013 and those investments are now producing returns of \u00a340,000 every year.&nbsp;All in all, you have investments worth \u00a3844,252 \u2013 of which you put in less than half, and the majority came from your investment returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This sounds like an incredible outcome: your money is now earning more than your starting salary every year, without any effort on your part. And all based on a very modest level of contributions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(In reality you would probably have increased your contributions by more as your income grew, but it makes the example too complicated. Instead, we can assume that you were also busy buying and paying off a house, and using your money in the present to have a good time \u2013 which there&#8217;s nothing wrong with at all.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So: 60 years old, all great. But let\u2019s check in on where you\u2019d be at the halfway mark of 40 years old, after executing this plan for 20 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At this point, nothing that special has happened at all. You&#8217;d be generating \u00a37,484 from a total investment pot of \u00a3161,359, of which over \u00a3102,000 \u2013 two thirds \u2013 was money you put in yourself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So if you decided after 20 years that the corporate world wasn\u2019t for you and you wanted to take a step back to try starting a business, or even if you were forced to stop working due to illness or family commitments, that \u00a37,484 of investment income wouldn&#8217;t help you much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And of course, we\u2019re assuming here that you started at the age of 20. What if you didn\u2019t actually start until age 40? Not an unreasonable assumption, given that you may have started earning later, been saving up for a house, or just not spending your free time reading personal finance books so you never thought to get started. Well in that case, you\u2019d reach age 60 \u2013 a time when you might be wanting to ease off a bit \u2013 with only that \u00a37,484 in investment income to support you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This reveals the unfortunate reality of compounding: it\u2019s all back-loaded. For the first couple of decades, the vast majority of the growth in your investment pile is coming from your own contributions \u2013 and it\u2019s only after 30 years or so that the \u201cinterest on interest\u201d starts building up in a meaningful way. In our from-20-to-60 example, a full quarter of the investment pot ended up being accumulated in the last five years alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is still great if start young and go on to enjoy a Buffet-esque lifespan, but it makes no practical improvement to your life until after you&#8217;ve gone grey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So what&#8217;s the answer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, compounding is too powerful to ignore completely. I believe you should set up a compounding machine as early as you can \u2013 and base it on a realistic level of returns. (I see 10% being bandied around all the time, but there&#8217;s no chance a truly diversified portfolio will produce anything like that amount after inflation \u2013 I reckon 5% is optimistic.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once you run the numbers (which you can do with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecalculatorsite.com\/finance\/calculators\/compoundinterestcalculator.php\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a simple calculator like this one<\/a>), is that going to get you to where you want to be? If so \u2013 and you&#8217;re willing to wait that long to get there \u2013 that&#8217;s brilliant. No further action needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But if you&#8217;re dismayed by the outcome, or you want to start upgrading your life without waiting for decades, then you&#8217;ll need to layer something else on top. That could be starting a business, creating non-financial assets (books, courses&#8230;), investing more actively in an area where you have expertise, or anything else that has the potential to pay off bigger and sooner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When people wax lyrical about the power of compounding, they like to tell an 11th century story about a clever inventor who asks the king to pay him by placing one grain of rice on the first square of a chess board, then doubling it on each successive square. The king laughs at what a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Compound interest is over-rated - Rob Dix<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/robdix.com\/compounding\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Compound interest is over-rated - Rob Dix\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When people wax lyrical about the power of compounding, they like to tell an 11th century story about a clever inventor who asks the king to pay him by placing one grain of rice on the first square of a chess board, then doubling it on each successive square. 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The king laughs at what a","og_url":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/compounding\/","og_site_name":"Rob Dix","article_published_time":"2023-07-21T19:49:30+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-07-21T19:49:32+00:00","author":"Rob","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Rob","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/compounding\/","url":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/compounding\/","name":"Compound interest is over-rated - Rob Dix","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-07-21T19:49:30+00:00","dateModified":"2023-07-21T19:49:32+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/#\/schema\/person\/8a17b90170244af4aef79432b2dac191"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/compounding\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/robdix.com\/compounding\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/compounding\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Compound interest is over-rated"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/","name":"Rob Dix","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/#\/schema\/person\/8a17b90170244af4aef79432b2dac191","name":"Rob","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1dec2d522d3bbde40068a848d288d9c7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1dec2d522d3bbde40068a848d288d9c7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Rob"},"url":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/author\/djy7g\/"}]}},"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Rob","author_link":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/author\/djy7g\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1304"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1305,"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304\/revisions\/1305"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robdix.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}